IN 1969, Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously told the trade unions to ‘get your tanks off my lawn’.
Well, at the Royal Bath & West Showground tonight, the Lib Dems well and truly parked their tractors in the Conservatives’ safe Somerset field, overturning a 19,000 majority to take the seat in a Parliamentary by-election, forced by the resignation of David Warburton.
A swing of 29 percent saw the constituency – being polled for the last time in its current form – taken by Liberal Democrat Sarah Dyke, with a majority of more than 11,000.
In normal times, that’s an enormous swing, a seismic shift.
But tonight, there was no air of shock in the room.
In 2017, at the same venue, Conservatives were walking the halls with dazed expressions as news of a lost majority came through after a campaign that came awfully close to handing then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn the keys to Number 10.
However in Somerset, despite the shocks elsewhere, the Conservatives held Wells, and indeed, held Somerton & Frome.
Not so this time round. But it didn’t feel like a shock.
Only the speed of the Lib Dem claims of victory came as something of surprise, coming before the votes had even been verified.
Arrogant? Perhaps.
But who can blame them? For there’s no doubt this result will send shivers down the spines of Tory MPs up and down the country, and indeed across the county, as the likes of neighbouring blues Rebecca Pow and James Heappey set about preparing to defend their seats in reformed constituencies in the next 18 months.
The yellow tractors will be starting up; their lawns firmly in their sights.
Among political pundits and in media briefings, much is made of the fact by-elections are ripe for a ‘protest vote’, allowing the electorate a free shot at those in power.
But this defeat for the Conservatives, requiring a 15 percent swing, somehow still felt inevitable. Somerset Councillor Faye Purbrick won 10,179 votes, compared to 21,187 for fellow councillor, Sarah Dyke.
Sarah Dyke is the new MP for Somerton & Frome
For the Green Party too, this was a good night. At points, they were hopeful of securing second place, another staggering achievement that should, should, have provoked some real surprise. But even that failed to stir the air at the Royal Bath & West, it seems.
Martin Dimery increased the Green’s vote share by 5.1 percent, to 3,944.
Labour’s vote collapsed to a new low, dropping by some 10 percent, with candidate Neil Guild securing just 1,009 votes.
Labour were beaten by Bruce Evans, of the Reform UK, who secured 1,303 votes, while independent Rosie Mitchell won 635.
UKIP candidate Peter Richardson won just 275 votes and Lorna Corke of the Christian People’s Alliance, won 256.
Turnout was 44 percent, higher than usual for a by-election, perhaps signifying a strength of feeling, of the message voters wanted this poll to send.
On Thursday, the message was clear. Forget the spin, the justifications, the excuses; this was a bad night for those in blue – people in Somerton and Frome wanted a change.
Long term, this seat will no longer exist. And the Conservatives will be hoping the desire to send them that message goes with it.
But for now, the Liberal Democrats have taken back what they won in 1997, when Tony Blair swept to power in a landslide victory for Labour.
If these by-elections are a starting gun on the next general election campaign, this won’t be the last we hear of 1997.
The full Somerton & Frome by-election result:
Sarah Dyke (Lib Dems): 21,187
Faye Purbrick (Conservative Party): 10,179
Martin Dimery (Green Party): 3,944
Bruce Evans (Reform UK): 1,303
Neil Guild (Labour): 1,009
Rosie Mitchell (Independent): 635
Peter Richardson (UKIP): 275
Lorna Corke (Christian People’s Alliance): 256
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