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Tough decisions ahead in review of defence vision

blackmorevaleApril 13, 20210 Comment0

Since my last column, we’ve seen a little more detail emerge around the Government’s Integrated Review of our defence capabilities.

On Monday, the Defence Secretary spoke to the House of Commons, outlining the strategic vision that will inform our military decisions over the next five years. It’s worth saying – as I emphasised last week – that the Government renewed our commitment to the NATO recommended level of defence spending – an annual 2% of GDP.

But they’ve gone further, pledging an additional 0.5% above inflation for every year of the current Parliament – an additional £24.1 billion over the next four years. But alongside retrenchment, we’ve also seen signals of reform. And one of the announcements that’s caused anxiety is the decision to trim the operational manpower of the army from 76,500 to 72,500 by 2025.

I understand the consternation that’s caused in some quarters (and will be questioning Ministers as to how this reduction will be managed), but know, too, how important it is that this Defence Command Paper equips us to confront a range of metamorphosing threats. A pivotal moment in the 2012 US Presidential debates came when Governor Romney asked why the US Navy had fewer ships than in 1917.

President Obama replied that the military also had “fewer horses and bayonets” as a function of technological development – and a shifting calculus of risk.

And though the enormous bravery and sacrifice of our front-line soldiers will continue to be indispensable in protecting the UK, we also need to anticipate future threats. This is particularly vital given the long lead times on defence procurement. We are already seeing upgrades to our airborne capability (with a planned expansion to our F-35 fleet and unmanned drone capability among other areas) as well as a new National Cyber Force designed to meet the new reality in which digital warfare offers a constant threat.

It’s about staying one step ahead of those who wish to do us harm. And at a time when the world we see looks more uncertain than ever, such forward-thinking is not merely desirable – it’s a grave necessity.