General election polling: What’s predicted in YOUR area?

2024 is the year of elections.

The UK is poised to head to the polls when the urge takes Rishi Sunak – but we are not alone. The US, South Africa, Mexico, Pakistan, South Korea, Iceland, Venezuela, Uruguay and many more are also selecting new leaders and parliamentarians this year – or already have.

So we should all prepare ourselves for an ever-growing barrage of that dreaded forecaster – the opinion poll.

It’s already underway, with stories of the Conservatives facing electoral Armageddon, Labour losing support amid the Rochdale byelection controversy, and more.

First things first, it’s worthwhile saying we should not get too excited about any particular poll.

Polling is a difficult business – and we should know by now how wrong they can be (think Brexit, Trump’s first election, Theresa May’s catastrophe in 2017 etc). So they are not as well trusted as they once were.

But, methodology is improving all the time, and some polls have proved scarily accurate, so if nothing else, looking at the latest numbers is fun at least, unless your party is shown as doing particularly badly.

So why don’t we have a look at what’s going on?

Let’s begin with the national picture.

One way many people advise looking at polls is not to focus on any particular one, in isolation, instead looking at the overall data – the poll of polls.

One excellent poll of polls is that run by political news site, Politico, which gathers data from a raft of surveys and uses very clever calculations to give an overall picture.

Currently, the Politico Poll of Polls for the UK (last updated February 12) puts Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 24% and the Lib Dems on 10% – one point behind Reform, on 11%.

Scary indeed for Rishi Sunak’s hopes of remaining in Number 10 if a poll were held today.

The same is true at polling site Electoral Calculus (EC), which actually calculates probabilities based on its own polling, as well as a ‘poll of polls’ technique.

For a general election, EC currently has Labour on 44.2%, the Conservatives on 24.7%.

So overall, the Conservative Government is looking at a big deficit – between around 19 and 21 points – in the polls.

But what we really want is to get down to a constituency level, isn’t it? What’s going to happen where we are?

Well, again, it’s really very difficult to predict when we’re not even sure when the general election will come.

But that won’t stop us, and it doesn’t stop EC, which has very clever tools for predicting what might happen on a constituency-by-constituency basis.

What the EC predictor does is, using data from past elections, current polling, demographics and more, to come up with a probable outcome if a general election were taking place today.

It has even updated predictions to take the new electoral boundaries into account, so it’s really very clever.

While it is a prediction, subject to all the usual caveats, it is still an intriguing game, looking up our areas.

EC gives a percentage chance of a win for each party, so Conservative 95% would mean the Tories have a 95% chance of winning that seat.

There are some real surprises here in what the calculations think might happen – with some previously safe seats seemingly up for grabs.

Going by the EC data, several county Conservatives are facing potential defeat in an upcoming general election.

Chris Loder (Con, West Dorset), has a 45% chance of regaining his seat – but the Lib Dems have a 46% chance of winning, according to EC.

If Mr Loder were to lose the seat, it would mark the end of more than 100 years of Conservative representation in parliament for the constituency (barring a time when Oliver Letwin had the whip withdrawn during the Brexit fiasco, of course).

That would be a sign Labour was heading for a huge, huge win, as the West Dorset seat stayed Tory, even in 1997, when Tony Blair’s New Labour swept to power.

South Dorset, represented by Richard Drax (Con, South Dorset) is, according to EC, even more likely to change hands at a general election, with the Conservatives showing a 38% chance of victory, Labour 60%.

Again, this would be a huge loss for the Tories, with Mr Drax currently enjoying a majority of more than 17,000.

In Poole too, where Robert Syms (Con, Poole) is currently MP, the data predicts it’s more likely to go Labour at the next election (55%), with the Conservatives showing a 43% chance of victory. Another one Labour could turn their attention to.

In Somerset, Marcus Fysh (Con, Yeovil) could see his large majority wiped out. Currently sitting on a majority of more than 16,000, EC shows the Lib Dems with a 53% chance of winning Yeovil, Conservatives some way behind on 41%.

The new Glastonbury & Somerton seat is predicted to be an easy victory for the Liberal Democrats. Currently, Somerton & Frome is represented by Sarah Dyke (Lib Dems, Somerton & Frome), who will be contesting the new seat – and EC thinks she will win. The Lib Dems show an 82% chance of victory, the Conservatives just 18%.

The same is true of other new seats – Frome & East Somerset and Taunton & Wellington – where the Tories are under real threat, according to EC. It shows a 49% chance of a Lib Dem win in Frome & East Somerset (Conservatives 40%) and a 56% chance of the Lib Dems taking Taunton & Wellington (33% for the Conservatives). The seat is being fought for the Tories by current MP Rebecca Pow (Con, Taunton Deane), who has a majority of more than 11,500.

If any of the above seats do change hands at the next election, it would represent an extremely bad night for the Conservatives.

These are, by in large, pretty safe seats, with large swings needed to see them change hands. If that happened here, it would be likely to mean it’s happened everywhere.

But it is only a forecast, a lot can happen.

Here are the constituency breakdowns in full:


Simon Hoare (Conservative): 35,705
David Chadwick (Liberal Democrats): 11,404
Pat Osborne (Labour): 6,737
Ken Huggins (Green): 2,261
Conservative majority: 24,301

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Conservative: 83%
Labour: 13%
Liberal Democrats: 4%
Green: 0%
Reform: 0%


Chris Loder (Conservative): 33,589
Edward Morello (Liberal Democrats): 19,483
Claudia Sorin (Labour): 5,729
Kelvin Clayton (Green): 2,124

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Liberal Democrats: 46%
Conservative: 45%
Labour: 8%
Green: 0%
Reform: 0%
Other: 0%


Michael Tomlinson (Conservatve): 29,548
Vikki Slade (Liberal Democrats): 14,650
Joanne Oldale (Labour): 3,402
Natalie Carswell (Green Party): 1,330
Conservative majority: 14,898

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Conservatives: 61%
Liberal Democrats: 33%
Labour: 6%
Others: 0%


Richard Drax (Conservative): 30,024
Carralyn Parkes (Labour): 12,871
Nick Ireland (Liberal Democrats): 5,432
Jon Orrell (Green Party): 2,246
Joseph Green (Independent): 485
Conservative majority: 17,153

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Labour: 60%
Conservatives: 38%
Liberal Democrats: 1%
Others: 0%


Robert Syms (Conservatives): 29,599
Sue Aitkenhead (Labour Co-op): 10,483
Victoria Collins (Liberal Democrats): 7,819
Barry Harding-Rathbone (Green Party): 1,702
David Young (Independent): 848
Conservative majority: 19,116

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Labour: 55%
Conservatives: 43%
Liberal Democrats: 1%
Reform: 1%
Others: 0%


Marcus Fysh (Conservatives): 34,588
Mick Clarke (Liberal Democrats): 18,407
Terence Ledlie (Labour): 3,761
Diane Wood (Green Party): 1,629
Tony Capozzoli (Independent): 689
Tom Fox (Constitution and Reform): 186
Conservative majority: 16,181

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Liberal Democrats: 53%
Conservatives: 41%
Labour: 5%
Others: 0%

WELLS AND MENDIP HILLS (previously Wells)

James Heappey (Conservatives): 33,336
Tessa Munt (Liberal Democrats): 23,345
Kama McKenziie (Labour): 4,304
Dave Dobbs (Independent): 373
Susie Quatermass (Motherworld Party): 270
Conservative majority: 9,991

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Liberal Democrats: 47%
Conservatives: 44%
Labour: 8%
Reform: 1%
Others: 0%

GLASTONBURY & SOMERTON (previously Somerton & Frome)

2023 byelection:
Sarah Dyke (Liberal Democrats): 21,187
Faye Purbrick (Conservative): 10,179
Martin Dimery (Green Party): 3,944
Bruce Evans (Reform UK): 1,303
Neil Guild (Labour): 1,009
Rosie Mitchell (Independent): 635
Peter Richardson (UKIP): 275
Lorna Corke (CPA): 256

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Liberal Democrats: 82%
Conservatives: 18%
Others: 0%


EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Labour: 49%
Conservatives: 40%
Liberal Democrats: 10%
Reform: 1%
Others: 0%

TAUNTON & WELLINGTON (previously Taunton Deane)

Rebecca Pow (Conservatives): 34,164
Gideon Amos (Liberal Democrats): 22,464
Liam Canham (Labour): 4,715
John Hunt (Independent): 2,390
Conservative majority: 11,700

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Liberal Democrats: 56%
Conservatives: 33%
Labour: 11%
Others: 0%

BRIDGWATER (previously Bridgwater & West Somerset)

Ian Liddell-Grainger (Conservatives): 35,827
Oliver Thornton (Labour): 11,388
Bill Revans (Liberal Democrats): 7,805
Mickie Ritchie (Green Party): 1,877
Fares Moussa (Liberal): 755
Conservative majority: 24,439

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Conservatives: 50%
Labour: 48%
Liberal Democrats: 2%
Others: 0%

Tiverton & Minehead (new seat)

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Conservatives: 54%
Labour: 30%
Liberal Democrats: 16%
Others: 0%


John Glen (Conservatives): 30,280
Victoria Charleston (Liberal Democrats): 10,544
Tom Corbin (Labour): 9,675
Rick Page (Green Party): 2,486
King Arthur Pendragon (Independent): 745
Conservative majority: 19,736


Andrew Murrison (Conservatives): 33,038
Emily Pomroy-Smith (Labour): 11,408
Ellen Nicholson (Liberal Democrats): 8,015
Julie Phillips (Green Party): 2,434
Conservative majority: 21,630

EC prediction (% chance of a win):
Labour: 50%
Conservatives: 47%
Liberal Democrats: 2%
Reform: 1%
Others: 0%

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

I am the editor in chief of Blackmore Vale media, which includes the New Blackmore Vale, New Stour & Avon, Salisbury & Avon Gazette and the Purbeck Gazette, having been a reporter for some 20 years. In my spare time, I am a festival lover, with a particular focus on Glastonbury. I live in Somerset with my wife and two children.